Cuba now?

Since the early 19th century, the United States has had a keen interest in the island of Cuba. As US Secretary of State, John Quincy Adams, wrote in 1823 that Cuba is a “natural appendage” of North America. Later as president, Adams predicted Cuba would fall "like a ripening plum into the lap of the union." Unfortunately, Cuba didn’t fall to the United States in the manner Adams had hoped or planed. Ever since the Cold War, the United State’s policy towards Cuba is still one of containment, and has been so since Fidel Castro has been leader of Cuba. As the MSNBC of February 25, 2008 notes, Fidel Castro has been Cuba’s president for over forty years. He has weathered ten US Presidents, survived the downfall of the USSR, and lived before and after the rise of the Beatles. Therefore, with former President Fidel Castro stepping down last week and his younger brother Raul Castro officially being named President of Cuba on Sunday, February 24th, it is important to consider how this change will affect Cuba.

First, Cuba under Raul Castro will lead to new economic reform. The Xinhua News Agency of China reported a day after Raul’s confirmation as president that Raul’s primary goal is “to move the country forward.” Cuba’s largest problem is its pervasive poverty; since Cuba’s planned economy is heavily socialist, government policies affect its economy far greater than a capitalist country’s government would. Thus, Raul’s attempts at fixing the economy target both the government and the actual economy itself. As the Wall Street Journal of the same date reports, Raul plans to reduce government bureaucracy and streamline government functionality by cutting administrative bodies. Raul also plans to eliminate some government regulations, shifting the economy to a more capitalistic form. As the MSNBC of February 26, 2008 notes, even though Raul has not made concrete plans for how he will achieve his goals, his progressive stance will mean that Cuba will be headed down the road of reform. Among his goals, Raul wants to “improve salaries, eliminate costly subsidies, and phase out a dual-currency regime that he said had caused distortions in the economy.”

Second, Cuban relations with the United States might begin to thaw with this change in leaders. The USA Today of February 26, 2008 posted an opinion piece stating that “for nearly half a century, this country has blamed Fidel Castro for its bad treatment of Cuba.” Although Raul is still a Castro, his plans for reform and loosening of government domination over the economy in favor of a slightly more laissez faire economy is favorable news for the United States. As the Economist of February 23, 2008 reports, the US policy of containment of Cuba is archaic, since we are no longer battling communism, and its embargo against Cuba has failed. Thus, with Fidel’s resignation, the United States will be more prone to bringing normalcy back to Cuban relations. Furthermore, as reported by the Kansas City Star of February 26, 2008, both Democratic presidential contenders Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama favor an “eventual normalcy” with Cuba given the resignation of Fidel Castro. If the democratic party wins, which I hope it will, then we might see a return of normalcy to relations.

Lastly, Cuba under Raul Castro will hopefully lead to more political freedoms. One of the world’s greatest criticisms of Fidel Castro’s regime was its abridgement of human rights, such as free speech. However, Raul Castro is more willing to give freedoms to his people than Fidel. The Reuters of February 26, 2008 reports that under political pressure from the rest of the world, he did two key acts that underscore an important potential trend in Cuba under his rule: the releasing of several political prisoners and allowing peaceful protests to occur in Cuba. The Xinhua of the same date reports that even though Raul Castro has iterated that Cuba will not change its socialist policies, his actions show a willingness to grant more human rights to his people. Hopefully, this change is not just one-time.