I previously blogged on the tragedy of Bhutto's death; now, it's time to consider the effect of her death on both Pakistan and US foreign policy.
First, the death of Benazir Bhutto has greatly weakened President Musharraf and his administration. According to the Forbes of January 4, 2008, the death of Bhutto has weakened Musharraf because many protesters in Pakistan have blamed him for her death. The Financial Times of January 4, 2008 reports that while the “Western media were virtually unanimous in blaming al-Qaeda for Bhutto's murder… Pakistan's protesters generally blame Musharraf.” The Associated Press quoted a Pakistani man in December 29, 2007 saying “I don't know who killed Benazir Bhutto. But I do know that it is the result of Musharraf's wrong and bad policies." While some Pakistanis believe in a conspiracy by Musharraf to have Bhutto killed, most Pakistanis blame Musharraf for not providing her enough state protection. In fact, in the initial days of the assassination riots broke out throughout Pakistan in outrage. The Associated Press of the same date notes that in three days, protests have left “more than 40 dead and tens of millions of dollars in damage.” These riots are another reason that Musharraf’s government has been weakened. As a result of the increasingly unpopular status of Musharraf and the riots that broke out from the assassination, his administration has been severely weakened and his credibility reduced.
Second, Bhutto’s death in Pakistan has forced the United States to rethink its Pakistan policy. The New Statesman of January 3, 2007 reports that the United State’s policy in Pakistan was centrally based on their prediction that Bhutto would win the January 8 elections. However, with her death, the United States has been forced back to the drawing board. The SF Gate of January 5, 2008 states that the assassination of Bhutto has forced the United States to completely rethink its Pakistan policy. The Kansas City Star of January 4, 2008 notes that “the assassination of Benazir Bhutto killed the Bush administration’s last hope that President Pervez Musharraf could simultaneously defeat al-Qaida and the Taliban and return Pakistan to democratic rule.” The Philadelphia Inquirer of January 4, 2008 reports that the death of Bhutto has severely destabilized the region and allowed for terrorists to gain a stronghold in the country. Considering the fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapon capabilities, it is crucial for the United States to think of a new plan to ensure peace and stability in the region.
Lastly, the assassination of Bhutto will hurt the economy of Pakistan. This is a less reported fact that still has an important bearing on the issue. According to the Australian Market of December 28, 2007, the death of Bhutto is a sign that Pakistan could be becoming more unstable and thus cause many investors to pull their money out of the region of fear that instability will hurt economic growth. This fear has already partly manifested in the riots of last week. Bryan Collings, a managing partner at an investing firm in Pakistan stated that "My main concern is direct investment in the area” because the “people in the Gulf who are putting money into this equity market will have to have a rethink." Perhaps even more damaging to Pakistan’s economy is the fact that the assassination could hurt the country's credit ratings as well. The Forbes of December 28, 2007 notes that the Standard & Poor's ratings director stated that this recent development in Pakistan potentially could result in the S&P reducing its grade for Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating. One of the major services that the S&P does is rate countries with a letter grade to determine how safe it is for an investor in invest in that particular country. Pakistan’s grade is already a B-; however, the death of Bhutto has caused concern in the S&P that the grade should be lower. A lower grade for Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating would mean reduced investor confidence in the investment environment of the country and thus further hurt Pakistan’s economy. Thus, Bhutto’s death will hurt Pakistan’s economy.
First, the death of Benazir Bhutto has greatly weakened President Musharraf and his administration. According to the Forbes of January 4, 2008, the death of Bhutto has weakened Musharraf because many protesters in Pakistan have blamed him for her death. The Financial Times of January 4, 2008 reports that while the “Western media were virtually unanimous in blaming al-Qaeda for Bhutto's murder… Pakistan's protesters generally blame Musharraf.” The Associated Press quoted a Pakistani man in December 29, 2007 saying “I don't know who killed Benazir Bhutto. But I do know that it is the result of Musharraf's wrong and bad policies." While some Pakistanis believe in a conspiracy by Musharraf to have Bhutto killed, most Pakistanis blame Musharraf for not providing her enough state protection. In fact, in the initial days of the assassination riots broke out throughout Pakistan in outrage. The Associated Press of the same date notes that in three days, protests have left “more than 40 dead and tens of millions of dollars in damage.” These riots are another reason that Musharraf’s government has been weakened. As a result of the increasingly unpopular status of Musharraf and the riots that broke out from the assassination, his administration has been severely weakened and his credibility reduced.
Second, Bhutto’s death in Pakistan has forced the United States to rethink its Pakistan policy. The New Statesman of January 3, 2007 reports that the United State’s policy in Pakistan was centrally based on their prediction that Bhutto would win the January 8 elections. However, with her death, the United States has been forced back to the drawing board. The SF Gate of January 5, 2008 states that the assassination of Bhutto has forced the United States to completely rethink its Pakistan policy. The Kansas City Star of January 4, 2008 notes that “the assassination of Benazir Bhutto killed the Bush administration’s last hope that President Pervez Musharraf could simultaneously defeat al-Qaida and the Taliban and return Pakistan to democratic rule.” The Philadelphia Inquirer of January 4, 2008 reports that the death of Bhutto has severely destabilized the region and allowed for terrorists to gain a stronghold in the country. Considering the fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapon capabilities, it is crucial for the United States to think of a new plan to ensure peace and stability in the region.
Lastly, the assassination of Bhutto will hurt the economy of Pakistan. This is a less reported fact that still has an important bearing on the issue. According to the Australian Market of December 28, 2007, the death of Bhutto is a sign that Pakistan could be becoming more unstable and thus cause many investors to pull their money out of the region of fear that instability will hurt economic growth. This fear has already partly manifested in the riots of last week. Bryan Collings, a managing partner at an investing firm in Pakistan stated that "My main concern is direct investment in the area” because the “people in the Gulf who are putting money into this equity market will have to have a rethink." Perhaps even more damaging to Pakistan’s economy is the fact that the assassination could hurt the country's credit ratings as well. The Forbes of December 28, 2007 notes that the Standard & Poor's ratings director stated that this recent development in Pakistan potentially could result in the S&P reducing its grade for Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating. One of the major services that the S&P does is rate countries with a letter grade to determine how safe it is for an investor in invest in that particular country. Pakistan’s grade is already a B-; however, the death of Bhutto has caused concern in the S&P that the grade should be lower. A lower grade for Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating would mean reduced investor confidence in the investment environment of the country and thus further hurt Pakistan’s economy. Thus, Bhutto’s death will hurt Pakistan’s economy.
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