Chavez and his constitution

So speaking of politicians who are trying to change the constitution, a hot trend in Latin America (just like adopting foreign babies seemed like a hot trend for celebrities last year), let's go to the politician who many say started the trend, Chavez of Venezuela. Many political analysts have stated in the past that Hugo Chavez, current President of Venezuela, has been tightening his grip over his nation. Indeed, as the BBC of November 26, 2007 notes, Chavez has been well known for his nationalization of many foreign oil companies and his censorship of anti-government organizations, newspapers, and radio shows. All of his domestic actions indicate an agenda towards an increasingly authoritarian government that includes taking away some essential liberties, including the right to free speech. As the US News and World Review of November 26, 2007 reports, over the past few months, Chavez has been trying to pass a new constitutional amendment in the form of a referendum to abolish the term cap on a president to enable him to run for a fourth time, which currently is banned in the Venezuelan constitution. As a result of the fact that many political analysts, some political analyst like Saul Hudson of Reuters believe such a referendum will be likely passed. However, Brian Ellsworth of Reuters disagrees with this belief noting in his November 26, 2007 article that many Venezuelans are growing discontent with Chavez and that he is losing control of his country. There is some truth to that statement, Chavez seems to be loosing some support of the people and control of his country.

According to the Reuters of November 26, 2007, new “polls show Venezuelans [are] shying away from the Cuba ally's drive for socialism in the OPEC nation.” Such a decrease in support comes from the fact that many Venezuelans oppose Chavez’s attempts to centralize more power and become more authoritarian. In fact, Chavez’s latest reform package he drafted to the Venezuelan congress consisted of measures including removing limits on presidential re-election, increasing Chavez’s direct control over foreign currency reserves, and expanding his power to expropriate private property and allow for media censorship during political emergencies, according to the Wall Street Journal of the same date. Chavez’s so called reform package has become so unpopular that one poll conducted even found that the Venezuelans who said “no” to the package had a ten percent lead over the “yes” group. The Washington Post of November 26, 2007 attributes this growing unpopularity of the Chavez’s policies to “nagging shortages of basic food products like milk and eggs.”

Chavez is not only losing control of the people, but he has also lost some of his former political allies in the past several weeks. According to the Reuters of November 26, 2007, Defense Minister Raul Baduel, who in 2002 helped quell an attempted coup against Chavez, broke ranks from Chavez and called his reform campaign a "coup." Furthermore, the second largest party of the president's coalition left the coalition, criticizing Chavez’s new plans and weakening his political base. The Economist of November 26, 2007 notes the part of the reason that Chavez is losing so much support at home is because he is creating so much tension abroad. Just recently, Chavez called Colombia's president a liar, is considering stopping the $4.1 billion worth of trade with Colombia, and froze ties with Spain until King Juan Carlos apologized for telling him to "shut up" at a summit this month. Such international conflict has hurt Chavez’s economy, reducing the amount of trade and thereby causing domestic strife as well. The Associated Press of November 26, 2007 adds that such groups leaving signifies that Congress is starting to distance itself away from Chavez, meaning it will be harder for Chavez to get any new radical packages passed.

Now, whether or not the decreasing popularity of Chavez will be enough to reject the December 22, 2007 constitutional referendum is still largely a speculative matter and even whether such a rejection would push Chavez to even more desperate measures- such as a military dictatorship- is another issue.

Evo Morales' Problematic Situation

It’s no secret that Bolivia has been on a track course much like Venezuela, Bolivia’s Evo Morales, current president of the country, has stated so himself. In fact, one of Morales’ political allies and mentors has been none other than Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela. Such a role model has been all too apparent, as Morales is attempting to pull off a similar constitutional maneuver that Chavez is currently attempting as well, thereby making Morales what I call Chavez's shadow clone.

But I digress. As the BBC of November 27, 2007 reports, the constitutional draft Morales has been pushing for was violently met with protests in the Sucre region started November 24 after some 150 pro-government delegates to a Constituent Assembly on Saturday approved the outlines of a new draft constitution. The opposition boycotted the meeting and thus the draft constitution was easily passed. One of the provisions of the constitutional package is a removal of the term limits to the Bolivian presidency, a controversial change that is also the centerpiece of Venezuela’s current constitutional reform package. Given the fact that protests have occurred in response to this new draft proposal, one wonders just how south Morale's plan has gone. Today, let's consider the this recent development, which has been quite the problematic thorn in Morales' administration.

Clearly, the riots are indicative of a strong disapproval of Morales’ current plan. While Morales was elected to office on his leftists, almost-socialist policies, his new political agenda is starkly similar to that of Venezuela’s authoritarian, leftist government. The Reuters UK of November 26, 2007 reports that many Bolivians are unhappy with this change. While they are happy with socialist welfare policies and land reforms, they do not want to much power centralized into the government. The BBC of the same date adds that such Bolivians fear the loss of rights at the hands of corrupt governments. The riots, which left three dead and at least 130 injured, according to the Bloomberg of November 26, 2007, has been merely one of many riots that have shown the country’s immense dislike of the new draft constitution. In fact, the reason why the Constituent Assembly was even in Sucre to pass the outlines of the new constitution was because in August of this year, protests in La Paz, the administrative capital of the country, prevented the Constituent Assembly from voting on the issue.

But it's not just the growing discontent of the people that's so problematic; the presence of the draft constitution has strengthened the opposition party. As the Agence France Presse of November 26, 2007 reports, former Bolivian president Jorge Quiroga, a key opposition figure, claimed the proposed constitution was "drafted in a barracks, written with rifles and bayonets, and stained with the blood of the people of Sucre." Such comments and many others have increased the emotional and political appeal of opposition leaders. Opposition leaders have been gaining in popularity and in political clout primarily because of the presence of this new constitutional draft. Because of the highly unpopular nature of the draft constitution and because of comments by Morales such as "civil disobedience isn't democracy, and we hope the Bolivian people ... identify these traitors, the people who are against the nation and want to damage this process of change.” Morale’s refusal to acknowledge any criticism against his new constitutional plan has alienated many of his followers and pushed many Bolivians into the hands of opposition leaders.

These two previously mentioned factors have culminated in the most dangerous aspect of Morale's unpopular draft constitution- ie, the increased the willingness of the Bolivian populous to take more actions of civil disobedience against their government. Although Morales harshly condemned anyone who would engage in civil disobedience, that clearly didn’t spot the riots in Sucre in happening. In fact, the appearance of the draft constitution has made the Bolivian people more willing to take actions of civil disobedience to protest such plans by the current government. According to the BBC of November 26, 2007, opposition leaders in six of Bolivia’s nine provinces called for a general strike by the Bolivian people today to protest the draft constitution of Morales. As the All Headline News of November 27, 2007 notes, such a bold political move would only have been possible because of the highly unpopular constitutional draft. Today's BBC noted that while the strikes (still ongoing) did paralyze some of the financial centers of Bolivia, the Bolivian Congress passed a motion that gave greater flexibility to the Constituent Assembly (the body that passed the outline of the constitution) to convene and took budget money from several cities, thereby showing the government' refusal to listen to the protesters. This action will increase tensions in the country between government and people.

Morales has a problem: The Bolivian people have already spoken; they reject this new draft constitution despite Morales' aggressive push for this plan. Given the uncompromising mentality Morales has to this issue, it seems that unfortunately, as opposition lawmaker Fernando Messmer stated today, "There will be violence, there will be clashes."

French youth riots: déjà vu all over again!

It was a déjà vu all over again. It was like the November 2005 youth riots in which minority youth clashed with Frances police in poor neighborhoods called banlieues over the racial tensions and poor socioeconomic conditions of such minority youth. In fact, it was just like a continuation of the 2005 protests. The Independent of November 27, 2007 reports that new French youth riots have erupted through France again, especially in the Clichy region: “A mob of angry youths left a trail of fire and destruction through the northern suburbs of Paris after two teenage boys riding a mini-motorbike were killed in a collision with a police car.” As the BBC of November 26, 2007 notes, Sarkozy reacted to this recent development, which is similar to the fatal youth riot of 2005 leading to the increased unpopularity of former French president Chirac, by stating in a recent press conference that the most important thing was to be calm: “Let everyone cool down and let justice determine who is responsible for what.” However, can such cool happen in France? Nope, these riots have come back to haunt France much like bad gun jokes haunt our very own Cheney.

Sorry Sarkozy, looks like you're going to have to learn the lesson the hard; since neither you, nor your government learned the lesson last time.

Ok, but before I explain why such riots won't be quelled any time soon, it is crucial to consider why such riots have occurred. As the Wall Street Journal of November 26, 2007 reports, the riots have been caused by two recent deaths in France’s Villiers-le-Bel in which two African teenagers, aged fifteen and sixteen were killed after being hit by a police car. While the police has asserted that the two youth were accidentally killed after they sped through a red light on unlicensed motorbikes without helmets. However, many of the French youth at the scene claim that the police deliberately hit the two youth then left the scene without helping them, thereby leaving them to die. Such a disparity in descriptions has been the initial spark in a riot that has been waiting to erupt for ages. One likens the current situation in France to a small spark being set off near tinder and a keg of gunpowder.

Ho'kay, so that's the spark. What was the gunpowder? I don't think the root of the problem is not the deaths of two African teenagers. According to the Time Online of November 26, 2007, after the two deaths at Villiers-le-Bel on Sunday night, a mob of 150 youths went on a three mile rampage, “burning one police sub-station and ransacking another… 40 new cars [were burned]…Twenty-five policemen and a fireman were injured, two seriously.” What could have provoked such a violent reaction? As many French politicians and officials have correctly pointed out, it’s the lack of reform promised after the 2005 French youth riots. The source of the tensions between the state and the French youth is their socioeconomic condition and the racial tensions they feel from being discriminatorily treated by the rest of French society. After the 2005 riots, politicians in France claimed they saw the error of their ways and promised to help pull such youth out of their miserable conditions and help integrate them into French society. The Washington Post of November 27, 2007 cites François Hollande, the Socialist Party leader, who criticized the government’s failure to prevent such riots from happening: “Promises were made. We want to see the results. How long have we been talking about a ‘plan for the suburbs’?” Furthermore, Dominique de Villepin, the former was Prime Minister during the 2005 French youth riot demanded that the government take action now: “The sense of injustice that was felt at Clichy-sous-Bois is being felt today at Villiers-le-Bel,” he said. The problem, however, is that the government has not taken any real steps to reform the poor ethnic parts of France. Since the government has not taken steps to improve the infrastructure of such places, integrate por ethnic youth into French society, and improved the economic situation in such locations, the riots cannot be quelled. It is already too late to make reforms now.

However, what kind of action will solve the problems in the banlieues of France? Certainly, it cannot be police force. Matching brutality with brutality was the tactic of French police in the 2005 French youth riots, which failed horribly. As the Times Online of November 26, 2007 notes, the 2005 riots resulted in two hundred nights of rioting, 8, 973 torched vehicles, 2,888 arrests, and one death. A lesson the French government should at least have learned, if not the importance of reforming such poor neighborhoods, is that police force will not solve the problems. If the instigator of such tensions between the poor multiracial sections of France and the rest of France is the tensions felt between the poorer minorities and the police, then police force will certainly only enflame more violent response.

So, if reforms are too late and police brutality will only spur more violence, I think we can see where this is headed. Yes, looks like Sarkozy is between a rock and a hard place. Looks like he'll have to do damage control now by implementing reform packages to improve such poor neighborhoods ASAP as well as crack down on the most serious offenders of disturbing the peace in France. Obviously, while such dissenters cannot be allowed to run rampant, they send a clear message of the need of change, a message that should be listened to by the French government.

Partial Zero Turbo Boost!

Besides sounding like Engrish from an anime about robots, it's also something I encountered today while I was at Whole Foods.

So I saw a sign on a car that said Partial Zero Emissions Car.

What is that supposed to mean? You can't be partial zero. Would you ever see something that was labeled partial zero calorie food? No! You would not. You might find low calorie or reduced calorie, but not partial zero calorie.

What kind of a marketing technique is that? Hello corporate America; we may not be the smartest consumers in the world, but we aren't that stupid. At least I'm not.

Recession?!?!?!!

oh no! a recession? That's not so good....

On November 5th, billionaire investor George Soros stated on November 4^th that the U.S. economy is "on the verge of a very serious economic correction" because of the credit crunch and other economic problems in our nation. He elaborated his belief at a lecture at New York University. Are we really on the verge of a recession? Let's look first to how the businesses of our nation are responding to our current economic situation.

Business reactions indicate that businesses are not confident in America’s economy in the near run and that many predict a recession on the loom. At the Reuters Finance Summit in New York earlier today, Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, told fellow business peers that “ there is a serious risk to the economy" that a recession will occurs because of the credit crunch. The CNN Money of October 20, 2007 notes that the credit crunch has already severely weakened the mortgage industry and by extrapolation, the housing market. The Wall Street Journal further explains by saying that this crisis is slowly spilling into other sectors and has weakened the economy to the point where widespread defaulting is occurring. In fact, the credit crunch has forced many businesses to absorb the defaults of hundreds of thousands of Americans, with a current bill of up to $700 billion. Given such economic factors, it’s no wonder why John Duffy, current chairman and CEO of stock brokerage Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said believes out economic status in the near future to be "In the toilet."

How about the consumers? Consumer confidence has been dropping as well, indicating that the economy is not doing as strongly either from a consumer perspective. Indeed, the October 30, 2007 Retuer’s headline was “Consumers gloomiest after Katrina aftermath.” In the article, it notes that the consumer confidence index dropped about 4% below what was estimated by leading economists at the time, even when such economists believed they had taken the current credit crunch and housing bubble woes. This finding has shocked many investors into believing that other consumers are losing faith in the current state of our economy, which is one of the first steps to a recession. Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at research firm Decision Economics is fearful that this statistic reflects the fact that more Americans are saving and that less are spending: "Consumers are definitely getting more gloomy. The question is whether that will be reflected in their spending." If consumers are spending less because of their decreased confidence in the economy, then a vicious cycle will begin that will inevitably lead to a recession. This statement links me to my third and final point.

But of course, nothing is as important as demand in predicting our economic situation. Consumer demand is decreasing, which is a sign of a looming recession. It seems that Mr. Ellis’ fears are coming true and that Americans are spending less. The Reuters of October 25, 2007 reports that a recent study found that demand of long-lasting manufactured goods dropped unexpectedly in September continuing into October. Such goods include cars, computers, machines, tables, and other goods that are non-consumable. The Economist of November 5, 2007 notes that such an indicator might suggest that our economy is on the verge of a recession since a recession, by definition, is when the economy slows down due to decreased demand for goods. However, the Fox News of the same date noted that the study did not necessarily indicate the threat of a recession because consumable goods were still faring strong. The problem with this analysis though is that since consumable goods are elastic on balance, meaning consumers must buy them in order to survive, the non-durable goods market typically is second to decline in demand in the face of a recession. However, the fact that the demand for durable goods is declining is reason enough to be suspicious of an impending recession.

While economists have certainly been wrong before and where sunny weather was to be, torrents of rain came instead, given enough information, their predictions will be right. Thus, when we ask ourselves the vital question: “Are we looming on the verge of a recession?” the answer is a firm yes. Unfortunately, based on the three key market factors of business reaction, consumer confidence, and consumer demand, it is clear to see that our economy is on the verge of a recession.

Pact Magic

Stepping aside from the obvious political tint of this blog, I wanted to pose a question to other people who might be familiar with the fantasy genre: What is the best internal system for magic in a urban setting? In other words, how does a system of magic operate given that the author is trying to follow magic realism. I have been thinking about this question for a while and the best and most simple system I can think of that provide an answer to readers but does not inundate them with a complicated system of magic that has the potential to be filled with contradictory loopholes if pact magic.

What is pact magic? Pact magic is when a human being gains superhuman powers through a pact with a higher being or a magical entity. In my story that I am currently writing, Clandestine Advent, the users of magic enter into a pact with an unknown entity force that enables them to use a limited amount of superhuman powers. In exchange for this power, the pact-holder must pay a "fee" or restitution for the powers used. This restitution is always different for ever pact-holder and can range from a loss of emotions to the need to cannibalize after each time the power is used. In terms of magic realism, it doesn't make much sense, but it at least is an internal system of logic that given certain inevitable suspensions of belief, is still logically feasible. I think...

HEAR HEAR!

People. Yes. This is a HIT on the nail when it comes to writing fantasy stories. Thought I'd share it with you. Props to Innermost from Nanowrimo:

Please, can you guys help me out, here? I've been trying to think of a solution to this question for months, and, since I have a small, insignificant brain, I've come up with nothing, and now it's a week 'til November...

Y'know what I mean. I'm getting mighty tired of reading about Evil Lord X, the mad dictator who wants to rule the world. Or Frightening Force X, which is going to destroy the world if it isn't stopped.

Why do the heroes in all of these stories always have to be reacting to something negative? They're always trying to foil someone else's evil plans.

Don't heroes ever plan anything for themselves? Start a small business? Build a nursery and have kids?

Proactive, yes, but these examples are not very quest-like. The thing that makes a quest worthy, I have read (from Noah Lukeman, I think), is how high the stakes are.

So, are there any high stakes quests that are proactive?

I try to think of them, but it always ends up like: "Mr. Hero must go collect the Seven Swords from across the treacherous land! Why does he need these swords? Well... to... defeat the Seven Evil Lords, of course! They plan the Deadly Plague!"

NaNoWriMo

Hello people. This month is November, which means it's the National Novel Writing Month. I'm currently writing a novel this month and given the continued pressures of school and college applications, I might be sacrificing some time from blogs to my story. I will post my story URL later though!