Chavez and his constitution

So speaking of politicians who are trying to change the constitution, a hot trend in Latin America (just like adopting foreign babies seemed like a hot trend for celebrities last year), let's go to the politician who many say started the trend, Chavez of Venezuela. Many political analysts have stated in the past that Hugo Chavez, current President of Venezuela, has been tightening his grip over his nation. Indeed, as the BBC of November 26, 2007 notes, Chavez has been well known for his nationalization of many foreign oil companies and his censorship of anti-government organizations, newspapers, and radio shows. All of his domestic actions indicate an agenda towards an increasingly authoritarian government that includes taking away some essential liberties, including the right to free speech. As the US News and World Review of November 26, 2007 reports, over the past few months, Chavez has been trying to pass a new constitutional amendment in the form of a referendum to abolish the term cap on a president to enable him to run for a fourth time, which currently is banned in the Venezuelan constitution. As a result of the fact that many political analysts, some political analyst like Saul Hudson of Reuters believe such a referendum will be likely passed. However, Brian Ellsworth of Reuters disagrees with this belief noting in his November 26, 2007 article that many Venezuelans are growing discontent with Chavez and that he is losing control of his country. There is some truth to that statement, Chavez seems to be loosing some support of the people and control of his country.

According to the Reuters of November 26, 2007, new “polls show Venezuelans [are] shying away from the Cuba ally's drive for socialism in the OPEC nation.” Such a decrease in support comes from the fact that many Venezuelans oppose Chavez’s attempts to centralize more power and become more authoritarian. In fact, Chavez’s latest reform package he drafted to the Venezuelan congress consisted of measures including removing limits on presidential re-election, increasing Chavez’s direct control over foreign currency reserves, and expanding his power to expropriate private property and allow for media censorship during political emergencies, according to the Wall Street Journal of the same date. Chavez’s so called reform package has become so unpopular that one poll conducted even found that the Venezuelans who said “no” to the package had a ten percent lead over the “yes” group. The Washington Post of November 26, 2007 attributes this growing unpopularity of the Chavez’s policies to “nagging shortages of basic food products like milk and eggs.”

Chavez is not only losing control of the people, but he has also lost some of his former political allies in the past several weeks. According to the Reuters of November 26, 2007, Defense Minister Raul Baduel, who in 2002 helped quell an attempted coup against Chavez, broke ranks from Chavez and called his reform campaign a "coup." Furthermore, the second largest party of the president's coalition left the coalition, criticizing Chavez’s new plans and weakening his political base. The Economist of November 26, 2007 notes the part of the reason that Chavez is losing so much support at home is because he is creating so much tension abroad. Just recently, Chavez called Colombia's president a liar, is considering stopping the $4.1 billion worth of trade with Colombia, and froze ties with Spain until King Juan Carlos apologized for telling him to "shut up" at a summit this month. Such international conflict has hurt Chavez’s economy, reducing the amount of trade and thereby causing domestic strife as well. The Associated Press of November 26, 2007 adds that such groups leaving signifies that Congress is starting to distance itself away from Chavez, meaning it will be harder for Chavez to get any new radical packages passed.

Now, whether or not the decreasing popularity of Chavez will be enough to reject the December 22, 2007 constitutional referendum is still largely a speculative matter and even whether such a rejection would push Chavez to even more desperate measures- such as a military dictatorship- is another issue.